BLUF: Insufficient Ukrainian drones across large gray zones, usage of anti-thermal cloaks, and gaps in the front line are making Russian attacks effective.
Drone interceptors are currently too slow to intercept Russian glide bombs equipped with Chinese turbojet engines.
Russians are copying Ukrainian technologies, equipping light aircraft with machine guns to counter drones.
And the number of Ukrainian companies planning to relocate abroad has fallen to around 51 percent due to the Ukrainian government’s plan to loosen export control regulations.
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THE BIG STORY: How Russian small group assaults are effective
The mass infantry attacks and combined infantry-armor assaults in the war have been replaced by small assault groups that aim to infiltrate Ukrainian defenses.
Massive attacks are no longer effective because they are immediately targeted by drones and artillery. But small groups of two, three, or five soldiers are much harder to successfully strike, especially when they take measures to evade detection.
The length of the frontline, a personnel shortage in the Ukrainian military, and the use of thermal camouflage all help them to avoid being spotted.
Anti-thermal cloaks consist of multiple layers, including nylon, polyester, or other components. It also reflects infrared waves like a mirror, scattering body heat radiation in different directions due to the combination of aluminum or silver in the cloth.
The battlefield now has large areas of unsecured territory – the gray zone – spanning dozens of kilometers in width. Any point along the frontline with weak defenses can be exploited by enemy troops.
All it takes is a single Russian soldier getting through to start a process that can be difficult to reverse. Once that soldier occupies a building, he can stay there and wait for reinforcements. Once reinforcements arrive, they can move forward to capture the next building.
How Russian infiltration tactics work
Before going on the offensive, Russian forces conduct aerial reconnaissance to analyze potential weak points and attack routes, Vitalii Milovidov, spokesperson for the 15th National Guard Brigade Kara-Dag, told Counteroffensive.Pro. The brigade is positioned on the Kupiansk axis in the Kharkiv region, where Russians are actively using infiltration missions.
Next, a group of between three to five fighters in anti-thermal cloaks is sent out. They walk at certain distances apart to hinder detection. Even if Ukrainian forces eliminate three soldiers in a group of five, the other two still have a chance to reach their target position. Russian assault troops continue going without arranging evacuation for soldiers who are wounded or killed in action.
Once they establish themselves at a strong point, the soldiers there are self-sufficient, and they find their own food and water, Milovidov said. Russian drones can also drop supplies if the position they’re holding is an important point, he added.
Why it’s effective
Small groups of Russian soldiers can make a push to break through defenses at any time, no matter if it’s day or night. They use cloaks that suppress thermal signatures, a tool that has become widespread on the battlefield, Milovidov said.
Ukrainian forces most commonly use the Mavic 3T and Autel drones for tactical-level reconnaissance. They have thermal cameras, and some Autel models also have infrared capabilities. (Read our coverage on the evolution of Mavics on the battlefield.)
But Russian forces know this, and they have adapted using thermal camouflage.
"Yes, [the cloak] heats up, you can see the face, the legs. This still gives away movement. But the probability of detection [decreases], and accordingly, the probability of successful infiltration increases many times over," another Ukrainian officer told Counteroffensive.Pro on the condition of anonymity. He declined to provide his name or callsign for security reasons.
Soldiers wearing anti-thermal vision suits at a distance of 100 meters. Photo taken from Militarnyi
Reconnaissance drones also provide no guarantees when it comes to detecting an infiltrator. Mavics, for instance, conduct reconnaissance at altitudes of 100–130 meters, leaving it up to the operator's experience and training in distinguishing different targets.
Russians also exploit weather conditions when drones can't operate—such as rain, strong winds, or fog.
"They don't care what the weather is; they're going in. We're left without eyes, but so are they. [The Russians] don't stop moving and keep trying to advance," Milovidov said.
How to counter infiltration tactics
With infantry shortages in the Ukrainian army, more drone teams with thermal cameras and kamikaze drones are required, the officer said.
This would increase situational awareness density and improve strike effectiveness, shortening the turnaround time for detecting and eliminating enemy troops.
Mining is another potential solution. Ukrainian forces and separate units within the Unmanned Systems Forces already conduct work to try and preempt Russian advances, studying the terrain and mining areas that seem vulnerable.
But due to the wide frontline, mining every potential route is unrealistic, Milovidov said.
He also said that Ukraine needs more long-range strike capabilities to destroy areas of Russian troop concentration. HIMARS ammunition would be especially useful here. This way, the Russians will have fewer opportunities to advance even in small groups, the officer concluded.
Besides changing their approach to attacks, Russians have also exploited features of the terrain. In Kupiansk, for example, they broke through Ukrainian defenses via underground gas pipes in early September.
The Russian army established logistics for this and built special vehicles capable of moving through underground pipes. Before Kupiansk, the Russian military had tested out this tactic during the advance on Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine back in 2024.
The Ukrainian army has fought back by flooding or plugging in such routes with concrete.
Detection and terrain monitoring are also complicated by the fact that Russians have large quantities of EW systems and various interceptors against Mavics, which are widely used by the Ukrainian military.
Since Mavic and Autel are primarily commercial drones, they’re more vulnerable to EW unless they have custom firmware.
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BUSINESS LUNCH TOPICS: What our reporting shows!
Ukrainian defense companies less inclined to relocate abroad
In October 2025, the number of Ukrainian companies planning relocation or having already relocated stood at 51 percent, down from 85 percent at the beginning of the year.
This has been attributed to Zelenskyy's announcement that the country will soon boost exports of surplus production, according to a survey by Tech Force in UA, a defense association, in cooperation with the Better Regulation Delivery Office.
The main reasons for relocation:
89 percent – security concerns;
61 percent – inability to export;
56 percent – insufficient volume of government procurement;
The top five countries for relocation were Poland, the Czech Republic, the USA, Slovakia, and Estonia.
Additionally, 56 percent of respondents (compared to 38 percent at the beginning of the year) say the government is taking steps to improve the business climate in the defense sector.
Can drone interceptors shoot down Russian guided bombs?
Russian forces have started using modernized aerial bombs with UMPK guidance kits (also known as KAB). In addition to wings and GPS systems, these bombs are also equipped with Chinese SW800Pro-Y turbojet engines from Swiwin, a Chinese engine producer.
With this engine, the new strike range has exceeded 100 km, up from the initial 40-50 km.
The ammunition's time in the air has also increased. All of this begs the question: can Shahed interceptors shoot down glide bombs? The short answer is no.
Chinese turbojet engine SW800Pro-Y. Photo taken from Serhii Flash Telegram channel
"A glided bomb speed is 800-1200 km/h… The enemy uses around 5-6 thousand glided bombs per month, from 300 aircraft and 9 airfields," Anatolii Khrapchynskyi, deputy director of Piranha Tech, an EW maker, told Counteroffensive.Pro. The company recently started manufacturing Shahed interceptors.
Shahed interceptors typically reach speeds of 250-300 km/h, which is insufficient to catch up to glide bombs.
The Air Force also reported that they shot down two out of three glide bombs that attacked the Odesa region. Modern Western air defense systems can shoot down these weapons, but the main challenge is their sheer number, Khrapchynskyi said.
EW is another option, but the Kometa CRPA antenna used in such bombs complicates the task, because it can detect a strong signal coming from the ground and command the system to ignore it. Kometa has up to 16 satellite signal sources. Read more about this here.
Detection, guidance, and engagement are also among the challenges of shooting down KABs, and at high speeds, this is especially difficult.
Russian innovation tracker: Russians modernize aircraft to counter Ukrainian drones
Russians are upgrading light aircraft and helicopters by mounting machine guns on them to counter Ukrainian drones. They are guided by reconnaissance data toward a detected target, according to a representative of Aerorozvidka, a public organization for the development of military solutions.
This technology can only serve as one component of air defense and has obvious limitations, he added. Good visibility is required for these systems to work, for instance, and they’re not effective against high‑speed drones that fly faster than these aircraft.
Russian aircraft equipped with machine guns. Photo via a Russian Telegram channel.
There are also range limitations, and there is a high risk of losing these aircraft as a result of friendly fire. This technology is most effective in deep rear areas, where large swathes of territory are hard to cover with traditional anti‑air systems.
The development is also not new — similar methods have been used in Ukraine. Russia appears to have adopted this method more recently, inspired by similar tactics used in Ukraine. Recently, a Ukrainian light Yak‑52 aircraft knocked down a Russian reconnaissance ZALA drone. The adoption of such techniques may signal shortages in traditional air defences and the search for cheaper solutions, the Aerorozvidka representative said.
Europe presents new plan to strengthen defense capabilities
The European Union has unveiled the Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 (PDF), a comprehensive plan to boost defense capabilities by 2030. Below are key points from the defense document that concern Ukraine.
Establishment of a Drone Alliance with Ukraine. The European Commission will support the creation of joint ventures between Ukrainian and European companies outside Ukraine by early 2026;
Ukraine must be fully integrated into the European defense industry, with the goal of transforming the country into what the document calls a "steel porcupine, indigestible to any invaders." This is stressed as being crucial for the security of all of Europe;
Member States and the EU will contribute to a framework of long-term security guarantees;
Adoption of a Reparation loan by the end of 2025. It will allow providing a stable funding source for Ukraine and its military with equipment produced inside the country and EU;
Establishment of Brave Tech EU, which will include funding to test new technological solutions to challenges identified together with Ukraine by the end of 2026.
Ukrainian orders/legislation we’re tracking:
By: Oksana Zabolotna
Amendments to the Procedure for Accounting and Use of Defense-Related Goods
Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine No.1255 from October 1, 2025
Why it’s important: Miltech firms often experience physical losses due to hostilities, and past legislation has fallen short in providing a transparent mechanism to officially confirm such losses.
This resolution establishes a new mechanism that addresses this gap, helping to prevent financial penalties and misunderstandings with tax authorities.
Proposals: The MoD is now responsible for implementing the procedure for importing and using defense-related goods (previously handled by the Ministry of Strategic Industries).
Miltech producers that import goods for defense contracts must submit usage reports to the state customer. The customer — typically the Ministry of Defense — has five working days to approve the report or issue a written refusal with justification.
A clear procedure has been introduced for confirming the loss or destruction of imported goods due to hostilities, terrorist acts, or sabotage — with a defined list of documents that can verify such cases (fire report, force majeure certificate, inspection, extract from the Unified Register of Pre-trial Investigations, etc.).
Goods lost or destroyed as a result of hostilities are not considered misused if the loss is documented.
Stage: Entered into force on October 9, 2025.
Initiator: Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine.
What’s next: Implementation of the resolution.
ON THE MOVE: Professional movement, promotions and industry news.
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Justin Zeefe, a founding partner of Green Flag Ventures, has become a board member at Swarmer, a developer of swarming technology.
TAF Industries, a drone maker, is looking for a chief technology officer and a chief product officer.
30 SECOND ELEVATOR PITCH:
Owl Tech Systems is a Ukrainian company that develops radio-electronic systems for the military. The company creates OwlTech, an analytical system that combines a hardware device and a software app. Installed on a drone or vehicle, it collects intelligence data on enemy personnel.
“For the development of software and upgrading our devices, we need a minimum investment of $150,000,” said Oleksandr Oleshko, CEO of the company.
This funding would enable updating the products currently in the catalog and continuing to develop the software component from its early stage to a user-friendly format.
Overall, the company requires about $1.5 million to develop the software, including a mobile application, and prepare the products for mass production. However, securing investments of any size would support the project’s growth and improvement.
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Ukraine’s Security Service demonstrated a new Sea Baby marine platform that has already been used on successful missions in the Black Sea. The updated modifications can go over 1,500 km and carry up to 2,000 kg of cargo.
The MoD has presented an updated Military Medical Doctrine centered on combat medicine, adapted to the realities of modern warfare. The document provides for the creation of a Central Military Medical Directorate under the General Staff and the redistribution of responsibilities between institutions to improve the effectiveness of medical support on the front line.
The Defense Procurement Agency has signed contracts with drone manufacturers as part of the Army of Drones Bonus program. Soldiers will be able to purchase UGVs on the Brave1 marketplace.
The MoD has approved new cybersecurity standards for information systems used by the ministry itself, the Armed Forces, and the State Special Transport Service, in line with international guidelines. These standards establish rules for access, data protection, and security monitoring, as well as mandatory technical and administrative measures and training for relevant units.
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